SOUT SUDAN CRUDE OIL AND NORTH SUDAN ARROGANCE

SHIPMENT OF SOUTH SUDAN CRUDE OIL AND ARROGANCE OF NORTH SUDAN

The North Sudan has for century lord it on the South Sudan with complete disregard to safety of limbs and bones. Then, came, the mortal combat of survival by the South Sudanese lead by people like John Garang and others to the point where the North Sudanese realizes to their dismay that that the only safe place for the subjugation of South Sudanese is in the pages of History books. There after came the referendum by the South Sudanese whether to still remain as part of enlarged Sudan- the old order or to belong to a liberated south Sudan that is sovereign. Of course the outcome of the referendum was known before it was conducted. To start with the liberation of South Sudan was the main reason for the gruesome combat with the North Sudan; so eventually the South Sudanese chose the part of freedom and by their vote have created a sovereign south Sudan state.

The question of Crude oil reserves in the new sovereign South Sudan and its shipment pooped up; the existing arrangement was that the oil move through pipelines to port Sudan in the North and thence shipped through the Red Sea. Because the pipeline facilities have been installed, the North Sudanese now want to share the oil proceed with the South on 50/50 basis! The South Sudanese should try to negotiate for a 70/30 deal or at worst 60/40 deal with the North; however if the North prove stubborn about the issue then the South Sudanese should think outside the box like the Americans would say.

The North Sudan is another country different from South Sudan just like nearby Ethiopia with access to the Red Sea at Masawa Port, Eritrea or even nearby Kenya with access to India Ocean at Mombassa Port. The best that South Sudan would get from North Sudan would only be as good as any of the other neighboring states and may even be worse. If the South Sudan can get an 80/20 deal with any of Ethiopia or Kenya I personally don’t see the reason why they should be wasting their time with the arrogant North Sudan; let the North Sudan eat the buried pipes if they chose. They only cost is that the South Sudan should lay a new pipeline through Ethiopia or Kenya. In fact I personally consider Kenya as more strategic and viable. Since Kenya has little or no oil on its soil; it would be mutually beneficial deal for South Sudan to guarantee supply for Kenya refineries at a competitive rate in exchange to shipment of South Sudan crude through Mombassa Port. In fact it would be cheaper for Kenya to get its oil for its refineries through pipelines from South Sudan than paying for shipment and insurance and associated risks from anywhere else.

At worst South Sudan may get a 70/30 deal with Kenya and since Kenya would be strategically benefiting in the deal they May even help to offset the cost of the new pipeline and facilities

The South Sudan should realize that the presence of Crude oil in South Sudan makes it the bride of that region! In fact since the North Sudan has no oil at all ,it may also be of strategic importance to it to avail itself of the oil just a stone throw in the South instead of paying more for oil shipment from anywhere else. In fact what the South Sudan is presenting to the North Sudan is a choice of first refusal! The South Sudan must realize that it is calling the shorts as regard the strategic black gold it has and North Sudan is not in any way in position to dictate the percentage it would take as regard the oil in the South or threaten the South with any kind of ultimatum what so ever! The best the North Sudan would get is whatever that is reasonable in the sprit of African brotherhood and should even be thanking God that they have a deal in the first case.

Concluding I strongly believe that the South Sudan move, alone, to strike a new piping deal with any of Ethiopia or Kenya would make North Sudan to drop its ridiculous and outrageous demand of 50% as fast as it would drop a burning chunk of coal on bare hand!